⇒ Invisible Primary = attempt by potential candidiates to raise money and gain recognition. Takes place in year (or two) before the candidate selection process.

• It is the period between a presidential election and the first caucus/primary of the next presidential election
• It involves:
• Candidates trying to appeal to core voters (e.g. Trump on immigration)
• TV appearances and debating (e.g. Perry's "oops" moment in 2011 damaged his campaign)
• Fundraising (e.g. Clinton raised $115 million)

⇒ Primary = Elections held at a state level to choose a party's candidate for the Presidency. An Open Primary is open to all voters. A closed primary is only open to those registered with the party

• Open Primary allows for meddling such as 'Operation Hilarity in 2012', where Democrats crossed party lines and voted for Rick Santorum, who they perceived to be the weaker GOP candidate (compared to Mitt Romney)

⇒ Caucus = State based series of meetings of loyal party activists who select the candidate they wish to support

• Iowa runs this system

⇒ Super Delegates = Senior figures of the Democratic party who have full voting rights at the National Convention. Their votes are particularly important in a close race

• In 2016, Superdelegates were included in state primary results even though they do not vote until the DNC, giving Hillary a lead of over 400 delegates. Arguments exist that this put off many would-be Bernie voters

⇒ Candidate-centred politics - election developed into personal battles

• For example, Trump referred to Marco Rubio as "little Marco" and said they should "lock her up" (when talking about Hillary Clinton)

⇒ Importance of money - for a longer campaign candidates need more money

• Obama outspent Clinton and by super Tuesday she had to loan her own campaign funds from her own personal account

⇒ Role of the media - TV candidates tend to fare better in Primaries. Trump phoned into shows and had lots of free television coverage because of his outrageous comments

⇒ Centrist candidates for Democrats and extreme conservatism for Republicans do well - Open primaries mean that candidates need cross-over appeal. In 2016 the more Conservative Clinton won over the leftist, more progressive, Sanders

⇒ Reduction in role of party bosses - caucuses were criticised for their 'smoke-filled room' nature. Primaries have loosened their grip and now more candidates stand for election.

• Trump secured the nomination without support from the majority of super delegates

⇒ Front loading - An increasing number of states are seeking to hold their primaries earlier in the election year (in an attempt to influence which candidate can build momentum and ultimately be selected)

• In 2012, Florida moved it's date forward to the end of January

⇒ The McGovern-Fraser commission recommended reforms, meaning the party leaders could no longer handpick the presidential nominee (Democrats)

⇒ Beforehand, decisions were mainly made by party bosses which left them open to elitist corruption

⇒ Primaries actually counted in choosing the Presidential nominee (in 1968, Hubert Humphrey became the Democratic party candidate without competing in the primaries)

⇒ Iowa is the first state in the nation to nominate party presidential candidates. It does this through a caucus system

⇒ However, Iowa is unrepresentative as the electorate is only 2 million and they are mostly white and Christian

• Effect on policy 2016 - Republicans focused on moral issues and on immigration to find resonance with conservative Iowans. And the Democrats expressed support for producing ethanol (Iowa is main producer).
• Effect on campaigning 2016 - John Edwards spent almost his entire campaing there, but some candidates avoid it all together, such as John McCain in 2008, spent time in South Carolina instead
• Effect of winning Iowa - can help the candidate gain momentum, but it can also harm those who fail to match expectations (e.g. CNN said that Clintons victory was only 'razor thin' in 2016)

⇒ Limits to Iowa's importance:

• Front loading has meant that losing in Iowa may not lose you the campaign (e.g. Trump lost but still secured the parties' nomination)
• Those who raised the most money and have a national strategy will likely win (e.g. Clinton over Bernie)

⇒ Increased level of participation by ordinary voters, from 11% in 1968 to 28.5% in 2016 (caucuses and primaries combined)

⇒ Significant increase in choice of candidates, from 5 candidates total in 1968 to 12 republicans and 3 democrats in 2016

⇒ Process is open to outsiders (e.g. Trump)

⇒ Power of party bosses has been removed, which is more democratic. ("It strips the elites of a key patronage tool" - Foreign Policy)

⇒ Gruelling primaries are seen as a a tough test for a tough job (in 2008, many suggested that Obama was a better candidate following his primary battle with Clinton)

⇒ Primaries are easy to understand, contributing to increase in participation

⇒ Widespread apathy and boredom, and turnout still quite low (see above). Turnout even lower when incumbent is running (2012 = 17.3%)

⇒ Super delegates can be seen as undemocratic in the Democratic party (e.g. announcement that Clinton had won before last primary)

⇒ Voters are unrepresentative of general population. Voters at primaries are usually older, more politically active, and more ideological members of society

⇒ Process too long (Clinton had raised $115 million before primaries began)

⇒ Process overly dominated by the media (e.g. Trump phone ins)

⇒ Can develop into bitter personal battles (e.g. Trump and Rubio)

⇒ Covington said they 'stimulate interest...stimulate participation' (time is dedicated to debate)

⇒ Traditional form of civic engagement

⇒ Cheaper to run than primaries (local volunteers vs. State tax payer for primaries)

⇒ Give close control over proceedings and ensure legitimacy (unlike open primaries [Minnesota])

⇒ Turnout is low compared to primaries (2016 = 1.3% vs. 36.1%)

⇒ Complicated nature dissuades attendance

⇒ Excludes large swathes of the population

⇒ Next check out our notes on national conventions