General Election 2016

Overview

Trump won the Electoral College, 304 votes to Clinton's 227. However, Clinton won the popular vote by 2.7 million.

TV debates are debtates between the 2 major Presidential candidates that occur during September and October of the presidential election years

TV debates are important

Many pay attention and watch (e.g. 80 million for the first Clinton v. Trump debate)

The soundbites are repeated many times by the media (Trump saying 'nasty women)

Can show who is more Presidential by who wins each debate (Clinton led in polls after TV debates, as Trump stumbled and repeated answers

Can lead to poll bounce (e.g. Romney after 2012 debates. And Trump dropped 4% in 2 weeks after first debate)

TV debates aren't important

Don’t always affect outcome (e.g. Clinton won debates by Trump won Presidency)

Debates are not likely to change people's minds as they occur so late in the campaign. They serve more to confirm decisions

Anthony Bennett: "most debates are not game-changing events"

Washington Monthly: "what history can tell us is that Presidential debates, while part of how the game is played, are rarely what decide the game itself"

Reasons for Clinton in 2016

Clinton had more support in some key largeer states like California and New York

Won the TV debates and had more minority votes (71% of Latinos) but some Bernie Sanders suporters did not support her

Had an established name as a Senator and Secretary of State

Michael Moore said she "believes in anything that will get her elected" - represents old politics

The email scandal was a big disruption in her campaign, with James Comey re-opening FBI investigation into her emails a week before the election

Reasons for Trump in 2016

Funded his own campaign

The New Yorker said he had "found what America wants"

Focused attention on the 4 blue states in the rustbelt of the upper great lakes

Creating scandals to attract attention and managed to deflect all criticism (Hillary couldn't do this)

He never published his tax returns despite pressure to do so

Weak on knowledge of policy issues and current affairs (e.g. in Primaries he was confused by a question on Brexit)

Key Voting Groups

Group Usual reasons to vote States 2016 Why they voted in 2016
Women Tend to vote democrat for healthcare, feminist movement, abortion rights (Those who vote republican are usually pro-life) 54% voted democrat (55% voted for Obama). Non-college educated white women usual republican Non-college educated women cannot empathise with Clinton (don’t want her to be first female President)
Age Young care about tuition fees, education, and generally more progressive. Older people care about healthcare, economy, and have generally more traditional views 18 – 29 = 55% democrat
30 – 44 = 50% democrat
45 – 64 = 53% republican
65+ = 53% republican
Young didn't connect with Clinton as well as Obama (preferred Bernie). Older people liked traditional Trump ("make America great again")
White Usually split by class (richer = republican). Rural tend to be white and ideologically republican (concerns for manafacturing jobs, immigration, etc.) 58% republican Trump promised to bring back manafacturing jobs and reduce immigration.
Latinos Wary of harsh rhetoric on immigration by republicans. Latinos tend to be poorer so usually democratic. 65% = democrat
29% = republican
Clinton not so harsh on immigration. Many Latinos are Catholic so pro-life (Trump wanted anti-abortion judges)
Blacks Democrats associated with civil rights & affirmative action. Obama was black. 8% = republican
88% = democrat
Clinton was not as popular as Obama (he got over 90% of the black vote). Turnout was low (lack of enthusiasm for 2 bad candidates)

Extra

Next check out our notes on primaries, National Conventions, and the electoral college system

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