⇒ Trump won the Electoral College, 304 votes to Clinton's 227. However, Clinton won the popular vote by 2.7 million.
⇒ TV debates are debtates between the 2 major Presidential candidates that occur during September and October of the presidential election years
⇒ Many pay attention and watch (e.g. 80 million for the first Clinton v. Trump debate)
⇒ The soundbites are repeated many times by the media (Trump saying 'nasty women)
⇒ Can show who is more Presidential by who wins each debate (Clinton led in polls after TV debates, as Trump stumbled and repeated answers
⇒ Can lead to poll bounce (e.g. Romney after 2012 debates. And Trump dropped 4% in 2 weeks after first debate)
⇒ Don’t always affect outcome (e.g. Clinton won debates by Trump won Presidency)
⇒ Debates are not likely to change people's minds as they occur so late in the campaign. They serve more to confirm decisions
⇒ Anthony Bennett: "most debates are not game-changing events"
⇒ Washington Monthly: "what history can tell us is that Presidential debates, while part of how the game is played, are rarely what decide the game itself"
⇒ Clinton had more support in some key largeer states like California and New York
⇒ Won the TV debates and had more minority votes (71% of Latinos) but some Bernie Sanders suporters did not support her
⇒ Had an established name as a Senator and Secretary of State
⇒ Michael Moore said she "believes in anything that will get her elected" - represents old politics
⇒ The email scandal was a big disruption in her campaign, with James Comey re-opening FBI investigation into her emails a week before the election
⇒ Funded his own campaign
⇒ The New Yorker said he had "found what America wants"
⇒ Focused attention on the 4 blue states in the rustbelt of the upper great lakes
⇒ Creating scandals to attract attention and managed to deflect all criticism (Hillary couldn't do this)
⇒ He never published his tax returns despite pressure to do so
⇒ Weak on knowledge of policy issues and current affairs (e.g. in Primaries he was confused by a question on Brexit)
Group | Usual reasons to vote | States 2016 | Why they voted in 2016 |
---|---|---|---|
Women | Tend to vote democrat for healthcare, feminist movement, abortion rights (Those who vote republican are usually pro-life) | 54% voted democrat (55% voted for Obama). Non-college educated white women usual republican | Non-college educated women cannot empathise with Clinton (don’t want her to be first female President) |
Age | Young care about tuition fees, education, and generally more progressive. Older people care about healthcare, economy, and have generally more traditional views | 18 – 29 = 55% democrat 30 – 44 = 50% democrat 45 – 64 = 53% republican 65+ = 53% republican | Young didn't connect with Clinton as well as Obama (preferred Bernie). Older people liked traditional Trump ("make America great again") |
White | Usually split by class (richer = republican). Rural tend to be white and ideologically republican (concerns for manafacturing jobs, immigration, etc.) | 58% republican | Trump promised to bring back manafacturing jobs and reduce immigration. |
Latinos | Wary of harsh rhetoric on immigration by republicans. Latinos tend to be poorer so usually democratic. | 65% = democrat 29% = republican | Clinton not so harsh on immigration. Many Latinos are Catholic so pro-life (Trump wanted anti-abortion judges) |
Blacks | Democrats associated with civil rights & affirmative action. Obama was black. | 8% = republican 88% = democrat | Clinton was not as popular as Obama (he got over 90% of the black vote). Turnout was low (lack of enthusiasm for 2 bad candidates) |
⇒ Next check out our notes on primaries, National Conventions, and the electoral college system