Congressional and Presidential elections in US Politics

Mid-Term Elections

These are elections held every 2 years.

All 435 house of representatives and 1/3 of senators face re-election at the mid-term elections

2016 elections

Republicans won 241 seats in the House (loss of 6 seats)

Democrats won 194 seats in the House (gain of 6 seats)

Republicans won 22 out of 34 senate races (their majority in the Senate is down to 52)

2014 mid term elections

Republicans won 24 out of the 36 senate races (a gain of 9 seats - largest gain for a pary in the Senate since 1980)

Republicans regained control of the Senate for the first time since 2006, with total of 54

Republicans won 247 seats in the House of Representatives (again of 13 seats) - this was the largest Republican majority in the House since 1928

Reasons

Coat-tails effect - the coat-tails effect is when a popular political party leader attracts votes for other candidates of the same party in an election (e.g. Trump's 2016 win appears to have helped Republicans hold onto the Senate and the House). There is also a reverse coat-tails effect (e.g. Clinton won in 1992 but lost 9 senate seats)

Split ticket voting - this is when people vote for 2 different parties when multiple offices are being decided on (e.g. Clinton won the presidency in 1996 but Congress was retained by Republicans)

  • The 2012 and 2016 elections showed that split-ticket voting isn't as popular anymore

The president's party tends to lose the mid-terms (there are only 2 occasions in the last 95 years that the presidential party gained seats in both houses of congress in the mid-term election)

Turnout - why so low?

The 2016 Presidential turnout was 58.1% (in 2012 it was 57.5% but in 2008 it was 63%)

The 2016 candidates were the least popular candidates ever. Even the Democrats didn’t like Clinton

Turnout is generally higher when people expect a very close race (e.g. 68% in 2004 when they expected a close one, but 2012 was 57.5% as it was an incumbent and Obama was had proven himself)

Institutional barriers - voter registration procedures take along time

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