⇒ The incumbent is the person currently holding office

⇒ In 2016, 97% of incumbents in the house of reps won re-election. Only 13/435 seats flipped

⇒ Incumbents are likely to be better known, owing to the personality politics of the USA (e.g. in 2010, Senate Democrat leader Harry Reid saw off strong competition from Republican Sharron Angle due to his strong name recognition and Arizona track record)

⇒ Incumbents build a track record of winning 'pork' for their constituents (e.g. Senator Byrd of Virginia claimed he built more bridges thany any other Senator)

• Pork barrel is a metaphor for the appropriation of government spending for localized projects secured solely or primarily to bring money to a representative's district.

⇒ Party affiliation - republicans are strong in Texas but were wiped out of the North East in the 2008 Congressional elections

⇒ Gerrymandering or re-districting - in the USA the redrawing of electoral districts is a political enterprise, and gerrymandering can make seats much less competitive by 'packing' opposition

• Republicans did well in Michigan in 2010, and thus were able to redraw electoral districts to suit them

⇒ Spending - incumbents build close relationships with local pressure groups and are able to rely on their funding come election time (and on average outspend rivals by 5 to 1)

⇒ National issues - in 2006 the issue of Iraq and corruption outweighed support for some incumbents and in 2010 Obama was punished over unemployment

⇒ Insurgent Tea Party candidates came from relative obscurity a year before the 2010 mid-terms to win some key Senate races (e.g. Rand Paul in Kentucky is one)

⇒ In 2014 mid-terms, 45% of exit poll respondents expressed concern that the economy was the top issue for them

⇒ Due to candidate-centred politics, they may face a charismatic challenger who is more electable than the incumbent

⇒ Party loyalty or lack therof - in 2012 Todd Akin and Richard Mourdoch were disowned by their party over comments about 'legitimate rape' leading to a defeat in races they should've won

⇒ It is a constitutional requirement that the US President must be US born, resident for 14 years, must be at least 35, and cannot already have served 2 terms as President

⇒ Political experience - the last 17 of 18 Presidential candidates have either been a Vice-President (Gore), Senators (Obama), governors, or in the cabinet (Clinton)

⇒ There has never been a 3rd party winner

⇒ Ability to raise large sums of money - Obama, Clinton and Trump did not need to accept matching funds. Obama raised more than any President in history ($650 million)

⇒ Effective organisation - Candidates cannot rely on party organisation during the primaries (Obama had ground campaigners in states and in Ohio they knocked 1.8 million homes)

⇒ Oratorical skill and telegenic image - Obama was a family man, great at speeches (but Bush was still elected for 2 terms despite being terrible at speaking)

⇒ Sound and relevant policies - Bush was seen as safeguarding the country from terrorists whilst Obama focused on the economy

⇒ Next check out our notes on:

• Primaries
• National Conventions
• General Election 2016
• Electoral College
• Campaign Finance
• Congressional and Presidential Elections
• Initiatives